Online life

[ksmith]

Much discussion these past few days. Howard Hendrix, the current SFWA Veep, unleashed a bit of a firestorm with his post in the sfwa LJ, especially the comment that those who post free books/stories on the web are scabs:

A scab is someone who works for less than union wages or on non-union terms; more broadly, a scab is someone who feathers his own nest and advances his own career by undercutting the efforts of his fellow workers to gain better pay and working conditions for all.

Other writers took exception to this assertion. Given that I am planning to post the odd free short work on my website in the hope of drumming up interest in ENDGAME and the other Jani books, I felt the sting myself. Whether it's justified or not, an accusation of undercutting fellow writers hurts.

John Scalzi responded, among others. "Pixel-stained Technopeasant Wretch" has entered the lexicon, and there should be items available at CafePress even as I type.

In this, as in just about every other damned subject, I can see both sides, and my feelings abide in the grey between.

The web is here to stay--duh. It offers marketing and promotion opportunities of possibly amazing scope and breadth--double duh. Publishing is changing. Ways of getting one's name and work out there.

That being said, the jury is still out, imho, as to whether free distribution leads to increase in sales. The writers for whom this apparently is working quite well--Scalzi, Cory Doctorow, Charlie Stross, were, I believe, strong online personalities with major followings whose work aligned with the sorts of tech they discussed. Cory and Charlie write near future cutting edge stuff. Scalzi seems to write more space opera, but he's a savvy marketer with a strong online presence, and that matters when you decide to promote online. Like most self-promo, it's not for the faint of heart. But consistent strong self-expression works like a gravity well, pulling in the miscellaneous floating bodies looking for places to orbit. There's a lot of vague out here on the web. Strong signals attract.

I would like to see numbers. I recall an essay of Cory's in which he discussed the 300K free downloads of, iirc, Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom, and the subsequent increase in print runs and sales. I don't recall specific numbers though--numbers of copies sold that could be related to the online exposure. I do recall some hand-waving explanation that direct comparison with other writers at similar stages in their careers couldn't be made. Sorry, but those are the sorts of comparisons I need in order to decide whether or not releasing big chunks of free work is a viable marketing strategy. Even a guesstimate would have been nice. 25% bump in sales? 50% 100%

5% 10% Not sure if it made a difference, but it seemed to?

Even additional print runs are relative--2500 copies? 5000? 10,000? If Cory's 300K free downloads led to 30K sales, that would be really nice for a skiffy hardcover, an incredible bump. Even 15K additional sales . But assertions that it must be obvious that it's helping, that some folks are laughing all the way to the bank, aren't data. They're assertions by people who are not shy about expressing their opinions, and whose sureness about the whole set-up may be working to attract eyeballs to their sites and possibly, readers to their work.

IOW, when I see that quiet fantasy authors without much of an online presence experience substantial bumps in sales when they release free work on the web, I'll believe that it's truly a viable across-the-board marketing strategy. When I see it working for writers who don't already have the Cult of Personality working for them. Who don't already operate as online gravity wells.

I believe that Peter Watts, whose Blindsight sales was driven along by a CC release, said that he wasn't sure the it would continue to prove a viable strategy if everyone did it.

Don't get in my face and tell me that I'm simply failing to see the obvious. Don't tell me that it has worked for music--different medium, with a different level of concentration required in order to enjoy and simple ways to download and listen. I would like to believe that something that I have some control over, namely the free release of my work, could help my career and my sales. But until I see numbers, percentages, hard data, until I see some consistency and workability across a broad range of writer styles/personalities/genres, I'm going to walk along the edge of the shore and let others wade in up to their chins.

Comments

[bb-kristopher.livejournal.com]

Eric Flint makes a pretty good case for free samples here (http://www.baen.com/library/palaver6.htm).

[kristine-smith.livejournal.com]

That data's five years old--do they have any info about other titles?

[bb-kristopher.livejournal.com]

You might want to ask Eric or Toni Weisskopf directly. I know I've seen comments from other authors that agree with the data Eric presents there, but I haven't seen any other numbers.

I suspect that if they do give you numbers, the idea will hold up though. A few years back, they offered a $1.99 hardback edition of the first Honor Harrington book. They still offer a $3.99 paperback of that, and of the first novel in John Ringo's Councel Wars series. I think the free ebooks are pretty much the same idea. A loss leader to get people hooked on a writer, or more often, a series. After all, they give you the first Honor Harrington for free, then hit you for $8 - $26 bucks a pop for the other 14+ in the series... They're making the money.

[kristine-smith.livejournal.com]

When Eos was still Avon Eos, they tried some $3.99 titles--not $1.99, but still pretty inexpensive. Apparently they didn't do well at all, and the program ended.

This could have been because the writers were new. It could have been packaging in part, since Eos was playing with non-representational cover artwork, another experiment that apparently failed and was discontinued.

[bb-kristopher.livejournal.com]

Oh dear. That doesn't really sound good. I know Baen takes a lot of flack for their covers (which, let's face it, do have a bias towards busty women, exploding spaceships and nifty looking guns), but they do seem to sell books.

As for the $1.99 hardback, to borrow a metaphor, it was the literary equivelant of standing on the corner handing out free vials of crack. On Basalisk Station isn't David Weber's best work, but it's good enough to get you to come back for the second book in the series, which is good enough to get you to come back for the third. The third book, if you like space opera, is an absolute work of art.

Judging from personal experience as a reader, rather than as I writer, I think the free sample approach works. I wouldn't have ever shelled out money for Eric's 1632 if I hadn't read it in the free library. I wouldn't have bought Travis S. Taylor's books if I hadn't gotten them for free on one of Baen's promotional CD's.

[msss.livejournal.com]

I can't tell you how it affected sales per title, but I can say that I flip through the Baen library when I'm bored and looking for something to read. I can also say that I bought the 1632 series, the Posleen series, the March Upcountry series and the David Freer books because I read them there. It's difficult to tell whether I look to Baen specifically for such content though. The lack of DRM and their general attitude to e-books is so much friendlier to readers.

I did download Blindsight and Accelerando, when they were offered for free. I haven't read either of them yet, although I read other Charles Stross books in hardcopy. I really appreciated Naomi Novik's free short story in her Temeraire series on her LJ, and it did bring the series back into my consciousness during the long wait until August.

First few chapters online is essential though - there are so many books out there and it can be quite hard to find a physical copy. If I'm hooked on the first few chapters online, well... that's easy to ring into the shop and ask for one to be put aside.

[sleary.livejournal.com]

For most writers, I think distributing limited amounts of work makes more sense than putting one's entire novel online. First few chapters, yes. Hard-to-find old short stories, yes. Novels? As you pointed out, it's worked well for those who already had an audience, but for others...

Hmm. It would be an interesting experiment for a midlist author to put an entire text online and see if it leads their existing fans to link to it and encourage their friends to give it a try.

It would be an equally interesting experiment for a new author to put the text up and give the URL ahead of time, perhaps in the ARC letters, and see if reviewers mention it or link to it. In that case, the results would be impossible to measure, since you wouldn't know what sales would have been without the added online promotion.

[kristine-smith.livejournal.com]

That's a problem--if the sales pop, you won't be sure why.

My real goal is to write the sort of story that bypasses all this. Editor reads it and jumps up and down. Sales force gets behind it and pushes it for all it's worth. Buzz throughout the publishing house. Lots of promo $$. I'm seeing it happening now with a couple of writers at Eos and well, it must be nice.

[sleary.livejournal.com]

Have any of these writers we're discussing done a survey of their readers? I haven't seen one. It's hardly the most accurate tracking method, but I think actually asking people "how did you hear about my book?" is about the only method that would work in this situation.

[k-mankiller.livejournal.com]

I think it's hard to quantify whether an online presence helps sales or not. I don't think it works to look at authors who don't have an online presence and compare them to authors who do; too many unaccounted-for variables.

It does seem to me from people I know that an online presence helps, but we're all really wired, so we're not a random sample. Part of the reason I checked out Cherie Priest's Four and Twenty Blackbirds is that I remembered her fondly from kittypix and some rants of hers that were linked widely.

I don't know. The idea that Cory Doctorow posting Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom online somehow takes food out of Howard Hendrix's mouth sounds like crazy talk to me. The data seems to support the pro-online side to me, but it's hardly conclusive.

[bb-kristopher.livejournal.com]

I think a lot of things can contribute.

To use a perfect example (since it is Kristine's live journal), I first noticed her name while I was starting my agent search. She's on Jennifer Jackson's client list. I decided to read her story "Incident on a Small Colony" in part because I saw her name on the client list of Jim Butcher's agent, and wanted to check out the work of some of Ms. Jackson's other clients to see if she was buying the kind of stuff I'm selling right now. Seeing them on Jennifer Jackson's client list also got me to shell out for a book by C. E. Murphy, one by Elizabeth Bear and Rob Thurman.

Which is a pretty weird way to find new authors, admittedly.

The thing is, I don't think there is any magic promotional bullet. I just think every little bit helps. I was on the fence about C. E. Murphy's Urban Shaman until I read the sample chapters. I hit the end of said samples, went "Uh! Most have more!" and ordered the book about ten minutes later.

The thing that got my back up about Howard's post is the implication that by taking advantage of a promotional tool, those of us with work freely available online are somehow hurting other authors.

The thing is, I've already been paid for that work. Paid well for it. And Baen is giving it away as a way to entice people into buying the full version of The Best of Jim Baen's Universe. If 'Best of' does well, not only will I make more money off that story than I already have, several other authors will also see an additional profit from the sales. In short, my work is available for free to help me, and other authors, increase the profits our profits. Not as a way to weaken the bargaining positions of others when they are trying to negotiate a contract.